It’s a midterm election year, and tensions are running high. A lot is riding on this election. The majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives could change hands, and there are many close races in swing districts. 

To double down on the drama, it’s a redistricting year. Congressional districts are being re-drawn using new 2020 census data. With some districts contesting in the courts we lack total clarity on what the political map will look like for the November elections. It’s a dynamic situation, and MSG is tracking it carefully.  

• Each week we issue an updated table showing state by state status (you can download it as a spreadsheet, too)
• Each week we update the US map to show which states have approved redistricting, which are pending, and which have been proposed

Congressional Math

Every 10 years the United States Census captures significant geo-demographic trends—which populations are up, which are down. The federal government uses decennial Census population numbers to reapportion Congressional Districts for each state. States with more population get proportionally more seats in The House of Representatives.

After reapportionment, U.S. Congressional districts must be re-drawn. Reapportionment and redistricting is a numbers game:

States That Gained House Seats 

States That Lost House Seats

You can see a pattern here. The Northeast and Midwest states are losing population, the South and West are gaining. 

It is left up to the states to draw new boundaries for each district. Some districts will become more competitive, some “safer” for the party currently holding the seat. 

Analysts at Fivethirtyeight.com reported that Republicans have power over the redrawing of 43% of congressional districts at the state level. Democrats control 17% of the districts. Independent commissions or party splits are in control of 38%. 1% of the districts won’t need to redistrict at all, and one “at large” district will cover the whole state.

With both parties potentially trying to shape Congressional districts to put themselves at an advantage, state supreme courts typically have the final say. A lot depends on population patterns—what regions are seeing the biggest population shifts. The results will no doubt have an impact on national politics for the next decade.

Stay on top of the latest developments by visiting our Genesys Redistricting Tracker.